On the COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak

On this page, we will have daily updates (19:00 CET) on the prediction of the development of the COVID-19 pandemic detailed in the paper by Michele Della MorteDomenico Orlando, and Francesco Sannino.

We report below our predictions for the COVID-19 infected cases and new daily cases for different countries as function of the calendar week number. The curve is the fit of our model to the data and the band corresponds to 90% confidence level fit. Nota bene that for Denmark, after the 13th of March, we multiplied the number of reported new cases by five to take into account the policy change in the way potential cases were tested.

All data are taken from worldometers.

Interactive maps

For an interactive map of the situation country by country, see this page made in collaboration with Peter Schneider-Kamp (IMADA), see here.


The breaking in the data is due to the constant change in the way tests are performed.

In the lower two plots no correction factor has been applied to the danish data.